George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Mar. 1998
President Clinton is facing the worst crisis of his presidency this month. The 700 pages of testimony released March 13 by the Paula Jones lawyers adds up to a horror story of aggressive sexual behavior and cover-ups worse than any that an American president has ever faced.
While many of the accounts had been published before, the sheer size and weight of the evidence published in one massive report will be damaging to his reputation and helpful to Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr.
Particularly damaging is the testimony of Kathleen Willey, who comes across as a far more credible witness than Paula Jones or Monica Lewinsky. Willey is a mature, 51-year old woman of some social standing who had been a reluctant witness at first, and unlike some of the others, appears to have no political ax to grind.
It is true that until now, public opinion polls have shown that a strong majority of Americans are willing to tolerate Clinton's sexual peccadilloes as long as he seems to be doing a good job. The US economy is humming along, people are employed in unprecedentedly large numbers and are making money. They say: "Don't rock the boat."
In addition, Kenneth Starr and the Paula Jones lawyers have been linked to right wing fanatics, and have often been inept in pressing their cases. Quite a few Americans believe that they are simply "out to get" Clinton, and discount their charges.
However, it is my guess that opinions of Clinton will head downward as the evidence accumulates. Americans, by and large, do not want to be embarrassed by the man they have sent to the White House. Nor will they abide a president who demeans the institution of the presidency.
It is hard to know whether the Special Prosecutor will have a strong enough case to indict and convict any of the actors in this case. But it does seem likely that, in a month or two, Starr will dump the evidence before the House of Representatives' Judiciary Committee, where Henry Hyde, Republican of Illinois sits as chairman. This committee will then be seized with the issue of whether or not to seek an impeachment of the president.
At that stage in the game, much will depend on the nature of the evidence, and even more will depend on the state of US public opinion. The members of the House are not likely to go down the impeachment road if they are perceived as unfairly hounding a beleaguered president who is serving the nation well.
What you will see from the White House, then, is a struggle to portray Clinton as "presidential," attending to the affairs of State. This doubtless explains the hurry-up scheduling of his visit to China this coming June. Previously, the visit had been scheduled for the fall of 1998. May 27 is the date set for the Paula Jones trial to open in Arkansas. To divert public attention away from the trial, what could be better than TV shots of Clinton at the Great Wall, Clinton at the Great Hall of the People, Clinton wading through crowds of curious Chinese in a Shanghai department store?
The irony of all this, of course, is that Clinton attacked George Bush in the presidential election campaign of 1992 for being too "soft on China."
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