George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Apr. 1998
Back in February, I predicted that President Clinton was in serious trouble in the Monica Lewinsky affair. Though most observers now think that, as a result of the Paul Jones case being thrown out of court, Clinton is off the hook. I continue to think that the president faces serious troubles down the road.
Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr will almost certainly send a report to Congress by the end of May. The report will likely contain in graphic detail a sordid picture of the president fooling around with an intern about half his age. It may also suggest that the president and/or his advisors suggested that Monica lie in court and obstruct justice. These will be serious charges. Even if Clinton's poll ratings are still high, it will be hard for the Congress to ignore them.
Obviously, Congress will act on political rather than judicial motives. But each member of the House, Republican or Democrat, will be straining anxiously to catch the drift of public opinion back in his or her home district, and my guess is that public opinion may well shift against Clinton over the summer. Starting in early September, the off-year election campaigns swing into full gear, and all members of the House plus one-third of the Senate must face the voters. At that point we will find out whether Clinton still has the credibility to carry on.
Meanwhile, Japan has emerged once again as the Clinton administration's favorite "bad boy." Last fall it seemed almost certain that China would be in the doghouse this year, but the successful visit of Jiang Zemin last October, the release of political dissident Wei Jingsheng, plus Clinton's need for a dramatic breakthrough with China has more than compensated for China's mounting bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.
As is well known, Washington is "mono-demonic," meaning that it can only feature one "demon" or enemy at a time. That demon is now Japan. In private briefings and public speeches, Japan is cited as the prime cause of the continuing crisis in Asia. Opinions vary on why this should be so, but most government insiders seem to blame the Hashimoto Administration for sitting on its hands and doing nothing to clean up the banking mess, stimulate demand, and take more imports from the struggling Tiger economies.
Clinton was careful in his strong April 3 warning to Japan to praise Hashimoto while criticizing his government's inaction. The reason for this is that Washington cannot see any other potential leader on the horizon who would be better than Hashimoto - and many might be worse. So the administration does not wish to do anything to weaken Hashimoto personally or hurt the LDP in the July House of Councilors election.
A key problem is whether Clinton should visit Japan before he travels to China to return Jiang Zemin's visit, or afterwards, or not at all. His advisors are divided on this question. Some of them would like to "punish" Japan by leaving it out of these discussions altogether. My surmise is that Clinton will stop in Tokyo before the China visit.
The newest superstar on Washington's horizon is of course President Kim Dae Jung of Korea. Observers here cannot believe how well the Korean economy is responding to the IMF reforms and to Kim's political program. They are holding their breath hoping that the reform will go forward, and they privately cite Kim as a refreshing contrast to Hashimoto in terms of his political courage. The New York investment community seems to share their optimism and new money is flowing into Korean Government bonds.
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