George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Aug. 1998
Washington and the nation face their worst crisis since Watergate in the summer of 1974. Although many people (including myself) have been predicting that the Lewinski scandal would not disappear easily, none of us imagined that it would take the ugly turn of the past few days.
The big surprise was not that Clinton confessed and apologized - many of us expected a maudlin, bromidic address to the nation in which he would beg for forgiveness and rally support - he really had to do this in the face of overwhelming evidence that he had lied about Lewinski in January.
What was unexpected was the President's harsh attack on Kenneth Starr. This was stupid and uncharacteristic of the "Slick Willie" that we all have come to know. Instead of appearing contrite, he lashed out against the special prosecutor, which could only result in strengthening Starr's determination to send a harsh report to the House of Representatives. It also made his "apology" less convincing to many Americans. Why did he do this, against the best advice of his lawyers and political advisors?
In my view, it was an act of desperation. I believe that in September Starr will show his hand, and that it will be a strong one. His line of questions on August 17 may have tipped Clinton off as to how strong the case against him was turning out to be. In his report to the Congress, Starr may present airtight evidence that Clinton committed perjury. He may also produce evidence that Clinton tried to obstruct justice and/or suborn perjury. Everything we know about Clinton's crisis-handling on previous occasions suggests that this may well have happened. And if that is the case, Clinton may have figured that his only defense would be to attack Starr and rely on the growing public desire to get this whole mess behind us.
In any case, the betting is that this case will drag on for many more months, and will seriously damage Clinton's reputation and power. It may also hurt Al Gore's chances of succeeding Clinton as president (recall Vice President Hubert Humphrey's loss to Nixon in 1968). In addition, new investigations into illegal fund-raising implicating Gore and Harold Ickes will likely drag on for many months.
What happen's next? The House Judiciary Committee under Chairman Henry Hyde (R-Illinois) will be seized with the task of investigating Starr's charges, probably after the November 3 midterm elections. This will lead to many more leaks and seamy revelations about Clinton's affair, further weakening his credibility both domestically and internationally.
At this point, one can only guess where American public opinion will stand. The full House will not be willing to impeach Clinton (a simple majority vote) unless polls show strong public support for such a move. Right now, though approval for Clinton is slipping downward, a slight majority is still opposed to impeachment. My guess is that approval ratings will continue to erode in the coming weeks and months as the American people feel increasingly betrayed by and disgusted with the man whom they elected twice as president.
In the event the House votes to impeach, the scene shifts to the Senate where, in effect, the president will be tried, with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (William Rehnquist, a Republican) presiding. No president since Andrew Johnson has ever been impeached by the House, and even Johnson was able to avoid an adverse vote in the Senate. It is very unlikely that the Senate will oust Clinton. But the very fact of being tried there (if it happens) will mean that a dark cloud will hang over his remaining days in office.
I hope I am wrong in all of this. Virtually every American I have spoken to wishes for a speedy end. But I fear that this matter has taken on a life of its own and will play its sordid self out for the next two years.
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