George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Sep. 1998
Washington has been rocked this month by the most sordid political scandal in the history of the Republic.
Sexual activities previously unmentionable in our respectable journals have become commonplace page one headlines. Television commentators routinely refer to "oral sex" as if it were the national pastime. On September 21, the day the videotape of Clinton's Grand Jury testimony was released, Jewish mothers tried to shield their children (home for the holidays) from seeing the X-rated president confessing his sins. Although we knew Clinton was a bad boy back in 1992, no one anticipated that he would get caught in such a stupid, reckless manner.
In the eye of the hurricane, Clinton did what he always does best: lie, shave the truth, appear alternately penitent and aggressive, and try to change the subject to foreign affairs, domestic issues, or Ken Starr.
Oddly enough, his strategy appears to be working. Why? There are many complex reasons. People who voted for him (43%) do not like to admit they were wrong. The economy is going well. The Republican right wing has foolishly overplayed its hand, appearing to persecute the president. The younger generation (baby boomers) are less judgmental than their parents about sexual behavior. Most of all, people are embarrassed that the leader of the nation has behaved so badly, and they want the whole issue to go away.
The result is that about 62-66% of most public opinion samples show solid support for Clinton's job as president. This could change if the economy turns south, or if Starr releases further damaging information about lying, perjury or obstruction of justice. It could also change slowly over time as people reflect on the moral gap in the man who may be called on to ask for sacrifices in the next two years.
The American presidency is all about morality and credibility. One can easily imagine a crippled presidency limping into the year 2001, paralyzed, and unable to provide leadership at home or abroad.
Some Republicans will welcome just such a disaster. The religious right believes they have Clinton on the ropes. But a much larger constituency seems willing to forgive him because he has espoused their burning issues, such as women's rights, abortion, racial harmony, health care, etc.
A key question for both parties is how this will play on the November 3 mid-term Congressional elections and on Al Gore's chances to be president.
The guess here is that the Republicans will hold their current majorities in both Houses, that impeachment will go forward in the House, but that the Senate will lack the 67 votes to expel Clinton from office.
In this scenario, Clinton will finish his term, badly damaged, but still strongly supported by his core constituency of women and blacks and traditional liberals. Gore will face an uphill battle against Texas Governor George W. Bush for the presidency in 2000.
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