George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Oct. 1998
As a lightening bolt can light up the whole horizon for a fleeting second, so the mid-term elections cast a brilliant, and surprising light on the future of American politics. What the elections made clear were:
In the best economy America has ever had, no one wanted to rock the boat. Voters overwhelmingly rejected impeachment of Clinton, and focused on smaller, more local issues such as education and crime.
America is increasingly a moderate, even conservative nation which rejects extremism of any kind. The extremists this time were symbolized by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Special Prosecutor Ken Starr.
The "Christian Right" and anti-abortion elements were resoundingly defeated and will have a hard time coming back in the Year 2000. Under Gingrich, they were allowed to dominate all aspects of legislation including whether the U.S. could pay its debt to the United Nations. Americans solidly rejected them.
The stage is set for a Gore vs. Bush (Jr.) presidential election which Bush may very well win. Gore is nowhere near the politician that Clinton has become, and when running on his own, may well stumble.
The influence of the 1960's baby-boomer generation - people of roughly Clinton's age - has been felt. 20 years ago, the Monica Lewinsky scandal might well have led to the downfall of a presidency. Today, Americans have become far more tolerant of the private behavior of individuals. Impeachment will not happen. Clinton will survive to finish out his term, scarred forever and impotent to pass much legislation, but still adored by many.
Look for resurgence of the "George Bush type" moderate Republicans, who know how to package conservative programs, (tax cuts, smaller government) in compassionate ways. It is true that hard-core conservatives like Steven Forbes and Dan Quail will spend a lot of money between now and March 2000 to win the Republican nomination for president, but they will fail.
Look for Clinton to try to secure his place in history by focusing on foreign policy for the next two years. Tops on his agenda right now is of course Iraq, and how to deal with Saddam Hussein's intransigent attitude about arms inspections.
Don't expect the Monica scandal to disappear. There is still lots of money to be made and media coverage to expand. Expect Monica to sign a contract for exclusive interviews and articles. Others of Clinton's lovers will also come forward to try to milk the last penny out of the situation.
Look for Clinton to try even harder to ingratiate himself with rich donors who can come to his aid financially and reduce or remove the huge debts which he and Hillary have run up with their lawyers.
Look for Hillary to be preparing for her next career - possibly in a major law firm or as head of a university or foundation.
Look for the next big fight on Capitol Hill to be on trade protection, starting in February. Gephardt's only chance to seize the presidential nomination from Gore is to rally the labor unions and industries (like steel) which have been hurt by the current surge of imports from Japan, China and elsewhere in Asia.
Expect official Washington to continue to treat Japan and Prime Minister Obuchi as if they didn't matter very much. Focus will continue to be on US China relations. The new man on the National Security Council for East Asia, Professor Ken Lieberthal, is of course a China expert.
The next great world crisis will be over the bankruptcy and starvation of the Russians.
George R. Packard
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