George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Dec. 1998
Once again official Washington faces the New Year with powerfully contrasting images: on one hand there is boundless optimism about the health of the economy; on the other hand, there is a gloomy foreboding about the impending trial of an impeached President. Most observers point to an air of unreality on both fronts: this can't be happening. But it is.
Meanwhile Americans who live outside the political center seem largely unconcerned. Poll after poll has shown that, while two thirds of the American people are willing to forgive Clinton, they are not fanatically devoted to him nor would they be particularly upset if he were removed from office - so long as the booming economy were not affected. Vice President Gore, whatever faults he may have shown in the past, has come to represent a viable alternative, and some Democrats even secretly hope that he will succeed to the White House early in 1999 and establish himself as the unbeatable front-runner for the election of 2000.
Will a Senate trial actually take place? No one can be sure, but my best guess is that a trial will start, and run for a few days, satisfying the constitutional requirement. Then a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans, amounting to some 60 Senators, will forge a compromise agreement involving censure for the President, immunity from further prosecution once he leaves office, and acquittal of the impeachment charges.
The fact is that most Americans, whatever their politics, do not relish the idea of Monica Lewinsky testifying on national television in the well of the august Senate, as to which of her body parts the President may have touched. The Senators (who are not permitted to speak during this trial) would find this an affront to whatever dignity may remain in their chamber.
Why, then, are one-third of Americans hoping the president will resign or be removed? The reason lies in the culture wars that have been raging beneath the placid surface of American politics.
America, unlike all other nations, was founded on an idea: the original immigrants from Europe escaped to the New World to found God's kingdom on earth, and aspired to a higher morality than could be found in the "sick" old world of kings, wars, and despotism. The new morality was about democracy, equality and freedom. Leaders were expected to be moral men (and later women) who would embody religious ideals. The President, as highest leader, was expected to set the best example of all. George Washington was revered in this role, and every president since has been held to a higher standard than normal humans (even though some have fallen well short).
This idea of higher morality survived through World War Two and into the 1960's, when a profound change took place. Launched in the cauldron of anti-war fever during the Vietnam War around 1965, three different revolutions took place: civil rights for blacks, sexual freedom (abortion) and more open lifestyles, including drug use, for the young; and an anti-military crusade for liberals. All three movements held fascination for the "Baby-Boomers" such as William Clinton, who came to maturity in this period. (This helps to explain why women, black and liberals have been his most steadfast supporters). All of these counter-cultures came to focus in 1973 on Richard Nixon as the arch-enemy, the embodiment of all that was wrong with American government and society. Nixon was for the counter-culture folks a perfect villain: scowling, mean-spirited and dishonest.
Meanwhile, the older, conservative guardians of traditional American morality, suffered deeply as Nixon was, in their view, hounded from office under threat of impeachment. They have been waiting quietly for revenge. When Clinton came along as the first president to dodge the draft, these conservatives stood ready and poised to exact revenge for what had happened to Nixon.
Clinton foolishly, even recklessly, defied them and brought about his own disgrace by conducting an affair with Monica Lewinsky. Hard core conservatives now seek a full measure of revenge. But there has always been a more moderate stream within the Republican Party which is less concerned with morality and more concerned with good government. These moderates will team up with Democrats in the Senate to forestall a trial and bring about a compromise solution. Clinton will be scarred but will survive. All eyes will be on Year 2000.
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