Last Updated: 2008/12/04 20:17

www.fnn-news.com > Inside America

Inside America

U.S. Political Report

(Return to Japanese translation.)

George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation

George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.

Packard Report - Feb. 1999

The dream of sunshine and warmth in US-China relations - so charming last June when President Clinton flew to Beijing to proclaim "strategic partnership" with Chinese President Jiang Zemin, is rapidly turning into a nightmare.

One signal after another in the past several weeks has pointed to a serious deteriorating in the "partnership."
  • The Pentagon reported last week a massive Chinese military buildup of missiles in Fujian Province, which can threaten Taiwan.
  • China used its veto in the UN Security Council to halt a UN peacekeeping operation in Macedonia.
  • China is once again seeking to intimidate ASEAN nations in the Spratly Island dispute.
  • The Chinese Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision in Hong Kong, threatening the rule of law in the former British colony.
  • The Chinese have undermined US efforts to gain access to a suspected North Korean construction site and, according to some reports is actually cooperating with North Korea on its space program.
  • The US State Department reported on February 26 that the Chinese Government "continued to commit widespread and well-documented human rights abuses."
  • Meanwhile intense negotiations continue over China's possible membership in the World Trade Organization. Both sides have expressed hope against long odds that a breakthrough can be announced when Prime Minister Zhu Rongji visits Washington in April.
No one in Washington can be sure why the sunshine of last June has turned into the dark clouds in 1999. It would appear that there has been a power shift in Beijing away from the politics of friendship toward a harder line. If so, it would be a major miscalculation of the politics in Washington. Clinton, now in his "lame-duck" stage, does not need to win any more foreign policy "triumphs" with China, and might even pick up some points for Gore in 2000 if he takes a harder line.

It is not insignificant that Clinton is having a hard time finding the right candidate to replace Ambassador to Beijing Jim Sasser, who is coming home soon. Nobody seems to want the job.

If this trend continues, it could mean that US-Japan relations will get more favorable attention in Washington leading up to Prime Minister Obuchi's visit here in May. History teaches that when China is out of favor, Japan's stock rises, and vice versa.

This is particularly true when North Korea's intransigence is once again threatening to terminate the 1994 "truce" agreement. Pentagon sources believe that Pyongyang is once again preparing to launch Taepodong Missile Number Three. Also, the North Koreans are making stronger demands for money and food in return to allowing inspections of the new underground site they are preparing, possibly for heavy nuclear reactors.

It has occurred to some analysts that the Chinese and North Koreans have reached some new understanding in which both nations will pursue their tougher line - jointly.

This could be a tragic miscalculation. Former Defense Secretary William Perry, now Clinton's chief advisor on North Korea, is said to be advocating a two-phase approach: first, offer North Korea a final chance to engage more thoroughly, holding out the "carrot" that the US would drop its trade embargo and offer diplomatic recognition. If this fails, cut back on all contacts and adopt a policy of harsh containment militarily until the troubled North Korean economy collapses.

In this tense situation, all eyes will be on the current Japanese Diet debate over the revised defense guidelines.

- English Version Archive -

2008/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2007/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2006/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2005/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2004/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2003/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
1999/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
1998/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10&11 | 12