Last Updated: 2008/12/04 20:17

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Inside America

U.S. Political Report

(Return to Japanese translation.)

George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation

George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.

Packard Report - Mar. 1999

A series of unrelated events are coming together to create an almost unprecedented opportunity for the Clinton and Obuchi Administrations to repair the frazzled relationship between their two governments.

As reported a month ago, the euphoric romance between China and the US has cooled down considerably in the past few months. We will see whether Prime Minister Zhu Rongji can repair this situation and win US support for China's bid to join the WTO when he visits Washington in early April. The best guess is that the Clinton Administration's tardy handling of the alleged espionage at Los Alamos will remain a potent campaign issue for the Republicans.

But Prime Minister Obuchi has a splendid opportunity to reinforce the US-Japan alliance and partnership when he visits Washington during Golden Week. The reasons are these:
  • Clinton will badly need a "foreign policy victory," especially if the bombing of Yugoslavia does not produce good results or if there are substantial American casualties.
  • If Obuchi can win Diet approval for the new defense guidelines before he visits Washington, he will satisfy Pentagon and Right Wing Republicans who have up to now been dissatisfied with Japan's apparent vacillation on this issue.
  • And if, as seems likely, there continue to be hopeful signs of economic recovery in Japan, this will add to Obuchi's stature as a friend of America and a strong leader - something no one expected back in the summer of 1998.
If Obuchi wishes to make a strong impression here, he would do well to study the record of Prime Minister Nakasone's first visit to Washington in 1983. Nakasone's strong statement on our "shared destiny" (Unmei kyodotai) won for him President Reagan's admiration and led to five years of close "Ron-Yasu" partnership, despite severe trade imbalances. It is not unimaginable that there could be a similar "Bill-Keizo" rapprochement.

Meanwhile, on the trade front, there have been several interesting developments. The U.S. House passed by an overwhelming majority a bill authorizing the President to impose quotas on steel. This bill is likely to go nowhere in the Senate and to die a quiet death. Despite the huge US bilateral trade deficit with Japan, there does not seem to be much stomach for a new outbreak of trade friction within the Clinton camp. They already have too many crises to think about.

Amazingly, Mike Mansfield's idea, born in the 1980's, of a free trade area between Japan and the U.S. seems to be slowly coming to life again. A study sponsored by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, with Bruce Stokes as rapporteur, is urging that the two nations consider a complete opening of their markets to each other by the year 2010. This would fit the APEC schedule, and would have the benefit of lending focus to the desultory trade negotiations with which everyone is bored at this stage.

Stokes will be floating this idea in various forums during April, in the lead-up period to Obuchi's Washington visit. Someone should advise Obuchi not to crush the idea if asked about it.

There is a sense in Washington that bureaucrats are tired of perpetual friction with Japan and are looking for ways to get around it. A successful Clinton-Obuchi summit could mark the beginning of a new and better course.

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