George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Apr. 1999
As reported last time, the conditions for a very cordial visit here are set for Prime Minister Obuchi. The Clinton Administration wants this visit to go well, hopes that the defense guidelines will have been approved by the House of Representatives, and foresees no big trade frictions breaking out into the open.
One possible drawback is the fact that Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji scored an impressive triumph in the public relations field last week. Despite the fact that President Clinton drew back at the last moment his support for China's membership in the World Trade Organization, and despite the fact that this could be damaging to Zhu back home, the Prime Minister was able to project an aura of self-confidence and good humor which won him many friends and admirers not only in Washington but across the country.
Americans love political leaders who can make fun of themselves, and Zhu did this with grace and charm.
When he rose to offer a toast at the White House dinner in his honor, he was able to quote a few words in English from Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, namely, "...government of the people, for the people and by the people." Such a quote is flattering to Americans even though they know that China has no such government.
Prime Minister Obuchi would do well to find another quote in English, which represents his view on some appropriate subject. In addition, the Prime Minister's staff should look for opportunities to get him out among real people - to a school, hospital, baseball game, or other public event. Japan needs a "human face" in Washington.
Here is an idea: let Mr. Obuchi visit a pizza restaurant and be photographed eating "hot pizza!" The American press would love it.
One lesson to be drawn from Clinton's rejection of a deal with the Chinese last week is that the White House very much fears the rebirth of a protectionist lobby. John Sweeney, the newly powerful labor leader, used a great deal of influence to head off a trade deal with China. Al Gore badly needs the newly muscular trade movement in order to capture the White House in 2000. Clinton and Gore do not wish to do anything which might alienate Big Labor between now and then.
Big Business and farming interests, on the other hand, are pushing for a deal with China. Today the Business Roundtable took out a full-page ad in the Washington Post urging Clinton to complete the deal with China. Many of these same interests favor warmer relations with Japan. If Prime Minister Obuchi does in fact favor China's entry into the World Trade Organization, he should say so, boldly, publicly and privately.
Finally, the NATO War against Serbia is continuing to go badly. Prime Minister Obuchi should cautiously repeat his support for the NATO position but keep in mind that it could change very suddenly if the prospect of a deal opened up.
One can see a very gradual but distinct drop-off of support for the war from the media and elite opinion-leaders. I suspect this will accelerate if the war is not soon brought to a conclusion. Yet the most likely prospect at this stage is that the bombing will accelerate for the next few weeks, and new calls for the introduction of ground troops will be heard. It is the most agonizing foreign policy decision time since 1967-68 during the Vietnam War.
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