George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - May. 1999
As predicted, the entire American visit by Prime Minister Obuchi was a grand success. He and President Clinton gave the impression that they held each other in high mutual respect. Economic issues were shoved into the background. And Obuchi surprised everybody here by displaying a keen sense of humor combined with modesty that charmed his various audiences.
All of this came at a time when two other major events were dominating the news: the horribly bungled war in the Balkans and deteriorating relations with China. The two came together dramatically in the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade.
Even before this event, policy-makers here were braced for more bad news about the Chinese theft of America's deepest nuclear weapon secrets. And they got it. Representative Christopher Cox'es House Committee came out this week with a formal report of what had been leaking in the New York Times for several weeks: China has been systematically stealing and adapting U.S. secrets for up to twenty years, from both Republican and Democratic Administrations.
The sharp Chinese popular reaction to the accidental bombing of the PRC Embassy came as something of a surprise in Washington, although it shouldn't have. Analysts now believe that the failure of Zhu Rongji's efforts to get China admitted to the World Trade Organization may have lowered his standing in Beijing and may have given the "hawks" in Beijing the upper hand. They in turn may have stimulated students and others to join in what appeared to be rather carefully controlled street demonstrations.
Reports coming back from Beijing indicate that many Chinese actually believe that the U.S. (CIA and military plotters) actually did intend to destroy the Chinese Embassy. This is a mistaken view, in my opinion. Clinton badly needs the UN Security Council to bail him out of trouble in the floundering bombing of Serbia, and for this he needs the good will of the Chinese or at least their restraint in using their veto power.
Interestingly, some left wing American critics here have picked up the Chinese line and agree that the bombing of the Embassy was intentional. Professor Chalmers Johnson, who becomes more radical each day, has adopted this line of nonsense on the Internet.
In any event, when tensions rise with China, Japan's stock as a friend and ally rises. But there is something more to the current period of good will: the Shugiin's {Japan's House of Representatives'] passage of the new Defense Guidelines has convinced key policy-makers here that Japan is serious about making the alliance an effective deterrent. And Obuchi's bold words about making the alliance the most important one in history were effective in underlining Tokyo's seriousness.
The net of all this is that Japan will almost certainly not become an election issue in the presidential campaign which is now in full swing. Although some protectionist sentiment is still out there (notably Pat Buchanan), no candidate is bashing Japan and none will in my view.
The biggest surprise in this campaign is the upsurge of support for Bill Bradley, former Senator from New Jersey. Of all the 14 candidates in the race from both parties, Bradley is best qualified to manage the U.S.-Japan relationship. More on that later.
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