George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Jul. 1999
The month of August will be a critical one in the sensitive volatile relationship between the United States and China. Optimists here (and I am one of them) believe that negotiations for China's entry into the World Trade Organization can forward to the point where President Clinton and President Jiang Zemin can agree on China's entry at the September meeting of APEC nations in New Zealand.
Those favoring an "engagement policy" with China were delighted with the US House of Representatives' vote on July 27 to extend "Most Favored Nation" privileges to China again this year. The bill passed by a healthy margin of 260-170, compared with 264-166 last year.
This easy passage came as a big surprise to the hard-liners on China. They had expected that relations with China would deteriorate badly as the result of the allegations that China stole American nuclear secrets, and after the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Also, an unusual alliance of liberal Democrats led by Dick Gephardt joined with the religious right in denouncing the Chinese Government's crackdown on the spiritual movement, "Falun Gong."
Gephardt, the House Minority Leader, was particularly incensed at the Chinese Government. On the House Floor, he cried out, "They're arresting people today who they don't want to express their beliefs. You tell me if they're making progress! When will America finally stand up and say that the human rights Americans enjoy should be enjoyed by people all over the world?"
Also, China's huge and growing bilateral trade surplus with the United States has angered the trade "hawks." They expected a far closer vote in the House.
There seem to be four reasons why the U.S. and China are heading for closer relations these days.
The first is that an intense lobbying effort by business groups in the United States is putting pressure on the U.S. Government to "engage" rather than "confront" the Chinese. Led by the United States Chamber of Commerce, and such major corporations as Boeing, General Motors and Kodak, and bolstered by the buoyant American economy, their pressure makes it hard for politicians to revert to a cold war posture toward China.
Second, the more sophisticated politicians understand that Asia's economic recovery is still fragile, and that it is important to do nothing that might encourage China to devalue its currency, setting off a new wave of instability in Asia. (Still, the U.S. Treasury Department is watching China nervously and fears that devaluation is an increasingly attractive option for the Beijing Government.)
Third, the remarks several weeks ago of Taiwan's President, Lee Teng-hui implying that Beijing and Taipei should negotiate as equals had the unexpected effect of bringing Beijing and Washington closer together. Observers here were shocked by Lee's remarks and were quick to disassociate the U.S. Government from them. Washington definitely does not want to see renewed tensions in the Taiwan Straits. The nightmare here is: what would we do if the Chinese Government tried to win back Taiwan by force? Although many in Congress declare that we should defend Taiwan, few are willing to see young Americans die in what is essentially a continuation of the Chinese civil war.
Finally all eyes are on North Korea, which is thought to be preparing a third launch of the Taepodong missile with a range of 3,300 miles. It would appear that Washington is resigned to the fact that Pyongyang will test-fire the missile. But there is also the realization that we have little influence over that situation, and that the Chinese Government is in the best position to lean on North Korea and to defuse the tense situation. This realization undergirds the new efforts to "engage" China.
Of course, this optimistic scenario could be shattered: the Chinese may devalue, crack down even more on spiritual dissidents, raise tension with Taiwan, and back North Korean belligerence, leading to a new round of tension. But my bet is that the U.S. and China will find a way to avoid this horrible scenario and get their relationship back on track, for the four reasons stated above.
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