Inside America

U.S. Political Report

Dick Morris
President, Vote.com

Dick Morris, the President of Vote.com, was President Clinton's chief strategist and advisor in the 1996 campaign and contributed to his re-election. Now he's also a commentator on the Fox News Channel and writes a weekly column in the New York Post. He has written four recent books: Behind the Oval Office, The New Prince, Vote.com and Power Plays. He is a graduate of Colombia University.

Bush Continues to Fall; Re-election in Serious Doubt

President Bush's fall in ratings has continued and gotten even worse. His job approval has dropped from the low 70s in April to the low 60s in May to the high 50s in July to the low 50s now. The polling indicates that Gore would probably defeat him if the election were held today.

The superficial reasons for the drop are the sluggish economy, the casualties in Iraq, the failure to find bin Ladin or Saddam Hussein, and Bush's poor performance on domestic issues like health care and prescription drug costs.

But the real reason runs deeper. Americans are no longer really afraid of terror attacks. Bush's success in conquering Afghanistan and Iraq and in discovering and preventing dozens of terrorist plots has lowered the importance of the terror issue among the voters. It is Bush's success not his failure that is causing his difficulty.

In national surveys, when voters are asked what are the major problems facing America, fewer than 10% mention terrorism as an issue. Thus, it is Bush's good work that is undoing his support.

What is the solution? Bush is currently trying to raise the public's consciousness of terrorism. Using the anniversary of 9-11 to deliver a major address to the American people on Sunday night warning that the war on terror is ongoing, he is trying to increase the perception of danger. A movie about his role in 9-11 broadcast nationally on Sunday, September 7th should also help.

But in the long term, Bush needs to open a new front in the war on terror. He stopped a slip in ratings after Afghanistan by focusing on Iraq. Now he is likely to increase his focus on Iran and Korea to warn people of the dangers we face in dealings with these threats.

Iran Likely To Be Act Three In War on Terror

Look for President Bush to increase the national focus on Iran, mobilizing international pressure on Teheran to stop its development of nuclear weapons. While Bush is unlikely to undertake military action because of the size of Iran (three times the population of Iraq), he will use the proximity of American forces in Iraq and the television broadcasts into Iran from refugees and expatriates in the United States to increase pressure on the regime.

One possible source of conflict for Japan relates the Japanese plans to proceed with investments in Iran's oil development. Such investment, even by Japanese companies, runs counter to the controversial D'Amato Amendment, enacted in 1996, which provides for penalties on foreign companies that invest in Iran's oil development. The sanctions range from a cutoff of Export-Import Bank financing to a ban on Overseas Private Investment Corporation funding, to a ban on underwriting US bonds and a host of other sanctions. The bill, signed by President Clinton, has always attracted opposition from Europe and President Clinton, as a result, waived its application the three times that it has come up since he signed the bill. But Bush's attitude may not be the same.

In any event, Bush is likely to depict the threat from Iran in serious terms, reminding Americans of the 1979 hostage crisis which has left a long and deep dislike of the Iranian government among average Americans.

North Korea: A Main Bush Focus

Since North Korea already is thought to have nuclear weapons, the Bush Administration is less likely to focus on North Korea publicly with harsh rhetoric and more likely to try to achieve a result through diplomacy. Also, China's willingness to pressure North Korea opens the door to diplomatic solution that has no counterpart with Iran. China wants to rein in North Korea because of the flight of refugees into China and in light of its trade relations with North Korea, China's third best customer after the US and Japan.

The right wing member of the Bush Administration are advising that he take a hard line with North Korea and refuse to offer any concessions which could be seen as rewarding Pyongyang for its breaking of the 1994 Framework Agreement with the Clinton Administration. But most likely, Bush will resist these pressures and choose to offer security guarantees to the North in return for agreement to halt nuclear development. Bush would, however, insist on inspections to make sure they comply and may be reluctant to include food and fuel aid as a part of the package. The hard liners in the Administration will try to block this aid saying that we should let the North collapse economically and not try to prop it up with humanitarian aid. While they are unlikely to stop Bush from offering security guarantees, they will probably succeed in barring aid.

Meanwhile, The Democrats Turn To Dean

Bush's salvation may lie in the growing support for former Vermont Governor Howard Dean to win the Democratic nomination for President. Dean, an outspoken opponent of the Iraq War and virtual pacifist on the war on terror, also supports gay civil unions (i.e. marriages). He is way too far to the left to ever win an election in the United States. But he might win the Democratic Primaries.

Dean is now leading former House Speaker Dick Gephardt in Iowa (a state which neighbors Gephardt' in Missouri). Gephardt must win Iowa in order to stay in the presidential race, but Dean is now 5 points ahead of him there.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry also faces a strong challenge from Dean in the neighboring state of New Hampshire, which he must win in order to continue to run. Here Dean, who is from next-door Vermont, is 12 points ahead of Kerry.

A third major Democratic contender, Senator John Edwards from North Carolina, faces a tough challenge from Dean in his must-win primary in South Carolina where Dean and he are tied for first place.

Dean has acquired his national position by massive Internet campaigning. Learning from my own book Vote.com, he has assembled a large base of volunteers, workers, supporters, and financial donors online. He has reached out to peace protesters and gays and encouraged them to network within their own communities to expand his lists and his support. The result has been a large political base throughout the nation and $17 million in contributions to his campaign.

His contributions are so extensive that they give him a big edge in the primary campaigns. Since he has virtually no fund raising costs (because he does it online) he can spend most of what he raises without diverting it to the cost of raising the money. Also, since most of his donors are small contributors, giving $100 or so, he can likely get more and more from them as the campaign evolves. By contrast, the other Democratic candidates are getting their money from larger contributors who are giving the maximum $2,000 per person allowed by law. Since they have already contributed the maximum, they cannot give any more to the campaign.

Democrats Look to Gore or Hillary

While Bush's new vulnerability has opened a bright prospect for Democrats, Dean's strong candidacy has put them in a difficult position. Dean is showing the kind of strength which may permit him to win the nomination in the liberal Democratic primaries, but probably cannot defeat Bush in November.

As a result, many top Democratic fund raisers and politicians are actively encouraging Hillary Clinton or Al Gore to run for president in 2004. While neither one says that he or she will run, both are known to be thinking about running. Hillary is far ahead of any of Democratic contenders in all the polls and Gore is somewhat ahead. Either one could probably win the nomination and would be a tough opponent for Bush in the election. (Current polling suggests that Hillary would have an easier time winning the nomination than would Gore but that Gore would have an easier time winning the election if he got the nomination).

Hillary is not likely to run unless Gore does. She really wants to wait until 2008 to run and would rather see Bush re-elected (although she insists she doesn't) so that she would have an open shot at the White House in 2008 when Bush would have to leave office having served two terms. If Dean wins the Democratic nomination, it will be fine with Hillary since he is unlikely to beat Bush in the election.

But, if Gore runs, he could well defeat Bush. Hillary would not be happy to see Gore in office since he would run for re-election in 2008 and she would not get her shot until 2012. By then she will be 65 years old and would have been out of power for 12 years. She also would have to give up her Senate seat to run in 2012 while a race in 2008 would make it possible for her to stay in the Senate should she lose.