George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Sep. 2004
With the end of the Republican Convention last night (September 2), the political season enters a new and decisive phase for the next 60 days. It will be one of the most bitter, divisive campaigns in American history. George W. Bush will win.
There will be several defining moments along the way: the presidential debates scheduled for September 30, October 8 and 13, will be closely watched and could change a few minds. Of course there could be a new act of terrorism. But it is hard to see at this stage how Senator John Kerry can win the White House. Bush has cornered the terrorism issue.
Bush and his strategists have cleverly won and energized the religious right, including evangelical Christians and orthodox Jews. They have co-opted the defense, security and safety issues. The economy is not getting worse, and joblessness decreased in the latest figures released yesterday.
Bush, for all his ignorance about the world, comes across to the American TV viewer as straightforward, sincere and tough.
John Kerry, on the other hand, has made almost every campaigning mistake possible. At the moment when Republicans were gathered in New York this week, Kerry allowed himself to be photographed while windsurfing off Nantucket Island. Here he was engaging in a rich man's sport at a place where only the very rich can afford to spend the summer.
Even Kerry's Democratic advisors are dismayed by their candidate's lack of punchy sound-bites and by his waffling and indecisiveness. There is some evidence that they will seek to improve his delivery and toughen up his rhetoric. But it is now clear that Kerry's tactic of not attacking Bush at the Democratic Convention in Boston was a huge mistake. The Republicans spent all week engaging in harsh attacks on Kerry and I suspect the polls will show a significant "bounce" for Bush next week.
One story to keep your eyes on is the unfolding FBI investigation of high Pentagon officials in a case where highly secret documents about US Iran policy were allegedly leaked to Israel.
It is common knowledge in Washington that Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, and Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith have strong sympathy for Israel.
It is also well known that Israeli intelligence is vitally concerned with the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program.
The most recent revelation in the case is that the leaked documents may also have been passed to Ahmed Chalabi, the Iraqi politician who was the Pentagon's favorite at the start of the war in Iraq. It is widely known that Richard Perle, another pro-Israeli defense intellectual and Wolfowitz, were strong supporters of Chalabi throughout the 1990's.
This case is radioactive because many of the major American media outlets are owned or controlled or influenced by Jewish businessmen. Any hint that senior American officials have difficulty distinguishing between American and Israeli national interests will produce outcries of "anti-Semitism." This could be a major issue in the campaign (though keep in mind that Kerry has recently revealed that his father's parents were both Jewish).
Finally, we can begin to see the shape of a second Bush Administration's foreign policy team. Colin Powell will almost certainly retire (he did not even show up at the Republican Convention), to be replaced in all likelihood by Condoleeza Rice. She might well bring her top deputy for Asian Affairs, Michael Green (a Japan and Korea expert), to the State Department to succeed James Kelly. Stephen Hadley, Rice's deputy at the National Security Council, could move up to replace Rice. Rumsfeld is a mystery; I suspect he will stay on for a while. Wolfowitz is in disgrace over Iraq and will be gone.
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