Last Updated: 2008/08/28 21:40

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Inside America

U.S. Political Report

(Return to Japanese translation.)

George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation

George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.

Packard Report - Nov. 2004

Post Election Trends

With the Republican 2004 election victory a week old, official Washington has turned to the most exciting game in town: who is IN, who is OUT and where will President Bush take the country over the next four years.

The most important question in the minds of all insiders is: will Bush revert to the "kinder, gentler" foreign policies that characterized his father's administration, or will he take his 3.5 million lead in the popular vote to continue and even harden his unilateral and hard-line stance?

My bet is that he will get even tougher, although he may be forced to compromise on a few issues like North Korea and Iran.

The key players to watch for signals in this regard are Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Powell has long been rumored to wish to leave after Bush's first term, but my guess is that he will stay on for 6 months to a year for the purpose of:
  • Preventing his arch-rival Rumsfeld from having a free hand
  • Seeking to jump start negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians now that Arafat is leaving the scene
  • Continuing his policy of engaging North Korea in the Six-power talks
All eyes are on Rumsfeld. Having known him for some 50 years, I predict he will want to stay on for at least another year, to prosecute the war in Iraq to a "victory" if possible, and to push for reform in the Pentagon. "Rummy" is not one to leave jobs unfinished nor to admit defeat. It seems likely that Bush will agree to keep him on, if only because no other candidate is readily available and qualified. Condoleezza Rice would like to be Secretary of Defense, but she is far from qualified and might run into trouble in her Senate confirmation hearings. Rice has told friends she would like to leave, and this might open up her job for Stephen Hadley, Paul Wolfowitz or John Bolton. Any one of these would be a disaster. They are all "Neo-con" hardliners, and Bolton is a fanatic about regime change in North Korea. The best of these choices would be for Rice to stay on for a while, and then take over the State Department when Powell finally does retire.

As for the East Asian experts, Rich Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State, and Jim Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, might be persuaded to stay on as long as Powell stays, but not a day longer. Dr. Michael Green is considering accepting an offer of a chair from Georgetown University, but could be kept on with a big promotion. Robert Joseph, the hardliner on the National Security Council staff, is definitely resigning.

The only sure appointment so far is that Andrew Card will remain as White House Chief of Staff. He is no friend of Japan, having been head of the American Auto Manufacturers Association in the 1980's, when Japanese imports were killing Detroit!

British Prime Minister Tony Blair arrives in Washington for a two-day visit this week (Nov. 11-12) and Bush owes him a huge debt of gratitude. Blair is expected to push for renewed negotiations in the Israel-Palestine war, and the impending death of Arafat, plus the eagerness of Powell to score a lasting triumph could push the president toward trying one more time.

All eyes are on Fallujah, where the battle to secure the US-Occupation of Iraq is raging right now. Most observers agree that if the US, with its Iraqi supporters, cannot secure a clear victory there, then the elections planned for January are in doubt and the Iraq quagmire will deepen.

Bush has other major problems: the fact that 135,000 US troops are engaged in Iraq, and with more needed, his options to act elsewhere are severely limited. Iran's quest to get nuclear weapons, the genocide in Darfur, and the fight against al Qaeda are all at the top of his agenda.

Another problem is looming at home: many right wing Republican conservatives (including William Buckley and Pat Buchanan) are unhappy with the war in Iraq and the growing national debt. They will be heard from. Buchanan, Nixon's Republican advisor, actually endorsed Kerry for President!

Finally, a number of scandals could break at any moment:
  • The probe into the exposing of a CIA agent, Valerie Plame, is said to be nearing a conclusion, with a high White House official likely to be charged with a crime
  • Probes into the misuse of intelligence before the Iraq war are nearing completion
  • FBI investigations into how sensitive intelligence wound up in the hands of Israelis and Iranians and Taiwanese agents
Any of these could make life very difficult for the Republicans just as they settle down to their triumph.

American history is full of examples of administrations that have won decisive victories for a second term, and then have over-reached and have been defeated next time around. The question is whether Bush cares about leaving a solid legacy or whether he is more interested in doing God's work as he sees it. My bet is on the latter choice.

George R. Packard

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