George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Feb. 2005
There is triumph in the air in Washington today. The Bush White House, the Pentagon, the Republicans in Congress and the NeoCon media folks are claiming a dramatic victory and crowing about Bush's leadership in the war against terror.
It is true that most observers were pleasantly surprised by the number of Iraqi voters who defied terrorists' threats and went to the polls. Actual numbers are not in yet, but the generally accepted estimate is that some 60 per cent of eligible voters did in fact vote, which could give Iraq a higher turnout by percentage than the United States in its recent presidential election.
President Bush will undoubtedly take full credit for this in his State of the Union Address on Wednesday evening (Feb. 2), but the cheering may not last for long.
No one expects acts of terrorism to suddenly cease. The fact that the U.S. Embassy compound was hit by a rocket attack just before the elections is evidence that even the "Green Zone" in Baghdad is a dangerous place.
The Democrats and anti-war leaders will now focus forging an exit strategy and will call for the gradual withdrawal of American troops, which now number 150,000. It is likely that Bush will in fact soon withdraw a few troops as a way of underscoring the fact that the war is winding down.
But American casualties, now over 1,400 dead and about 10,000 wounded, are taking a toll in public opinion surveys and within the Pentagon. The public is about equally divided between pro-war and antiwar feelings; and a continuing flow of casualties could easily turn opinion strongly against a continuation of US presence in Iraq.
More importantly, there is a strong feeling among top officers in the Pentagon that American troops are not equipped and trained to fight the kind of insurgency that is eroding public order throughout Iraq. Many leaks have sprung from the normally leak-proof Defense Department, and much of it centers on criticism of Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is going through another agonizing internal battle over who will lead the party going toward the 2008 presidential election. Howard Dean is making a strong bid to be the Democratic National Chairman, and if he prevails, the Party will take a sharp turn to the left.
Hillary and Bill Clinton are quietly fighting against Dean behind the scenes, and Hillary herself has been trying to soften her image as a radical feminist in order to win more moderate or centrist support. A new dark horse candidate has appeared on the scene: Jon Corzine, the multimillionaire senator from New Jersey (he bought his seat for $65 million earned at Goldman Sachs) has announced he will run for Governor of New Jersey, and this is viewed as a first step toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
And John Kerry has clearly not given up. He is using his fame as the Democratic candidate last time and $16 million in leftover campaign funds to hog the airwaves and comment on all national issues. But few give him a chance of securing the nomination in 2008. He is widely viewed as having been a very poor candidate who should have won.
Bush is having a hard time finding anyone suitable for the newly created post of National Intelligence Director. Several have turned down the job, probably because the lines of authority over the CIA and Pentagon are so vague.
Condoleezza Rice has made appointments at the State Department that encourage those who want to engage in a peace process with North Korea and favor renewed American involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian mess.
The removal of John Bolton as Under Secretary is encouraging, although he may end up in Vice President Cheney's office. The "resignation" of pro-Israeli Douglas Feith from the Number 3 spot at the Pentagon is also encouraging.
Tom Schieffer will definitely be Bush's choice for Ambassador to Japan, and is coming to Washington from his post in Australia for extensive briefings on the U.S.-Japan relationship.
George R. Packard
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