George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Feb. 2006
President Bush's "State of the Union Address" last evening was significant more for what he did not say than for any words that he actually spoke. Having blasted the "Axis of Evil" (Iran, Iraq and North Korea) four years ago, he was silent or conciliatory this time. Remarkably, he addressed some warm remarks to the people of Iran (as distinct from their government):
"Tonight, let me speak directly to the citizens of Iran. America respects you, and we respect your country. We respect your right to choose your own future and win your own freedom. And our nations hopes one day to be the closest of friends with a free and democratic Iran."
The US is actually cooperating with France, Germany, England, Russia and China to see if the Iran nuclear problem can be resolved at the United Nations.
No mention was made of the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons. India and China were mentioned as new competitors, but only in the context that America should avoid the temptation to turn to protectionism.
Japan received only one passing mention:
"Our economy is healthy and vigorous, and growing faster than other major industrialized nations. In the last two and a half years, America has created 4.6 million new jobs, more than Japan and the European Union combined."
What is going on here? I believe that Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice has gained a strong hold on US foreign policy, and that China lies at the heart of her agenda. If this turns out to be true, it will be a major turnaround for the Bush Administration.
It will be recalled that the dominant Neocons in the first G. W. Bush Administration viewed China as a threat and Taiwan as an entity that needed more US protection.
All efforts to negotiate with North Korea an end to their nuclear weapons program were sabotaged by the Cheney-Rumsfeld hawkish clique. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, James KellyI resigned in disgust at the end of 2004.
Since Rice took over the State Department, she has appointed Robert Zoellick as her Deputy and charged him with conducting periodic high-level talks with his counterpart in Beijing.
On his recent visit to Beijing, Zoellick showed a new willingness to accommodate to China's desire to restart the stalled Six-Party talks on the North Korea problem. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill was actually allowed to meet with his North Korea counterpart in Beijing - something Jim Kelly was never permitted to do.
The US Treasury Department has stopped beating up on Beijing for its continuing policy of keeping the renminbi (yuan) undervalued. Republicans in Congress are preventing Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) from passing legislation that would impose punitive trade sanctions against China.
Zoellick is offering to mediate between Japan and China on the Yasukuni issue, even though Japan has shown little interest in using him for such a mission.
Plans are being made to welcome Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington for a triumphant visit in April.
In short, the "Rice Diplomacy" looks far more like the realpolitik of Henry Kissinger than the strutting machismo ofthe first Bush Administration.
All this could change quickly if China behaves differently, cracks down on dissidents, or otherwise threatens to use its growing military power in East Asia. For the moment, however, Rice has a clear mandate from President Bush to try diplomatic solutions to the problems of East Asia and Iran. And that's good news!
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