George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - May. 2006
The steady stream of bad news from Iraq is putting President George w. Bush and his administration on the defensive for the first time since the Republicans took over the White House in 2001. One signal of the panic that is enveloping the president is the appointment of a new commission to study the war in Iraq that will be headed by former Secretary of State James W. Baker.
It is no secret that Baker was opposed to the launching of the invasion of Iraq, and it is further known that Baker is far closer to former President George H.W. Bush (the 41st president) than he is to the son. It is also known that Baker was privately critical of the excessive influence of the "Neo-cons" or pro-Israel elements such as Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith, Scooter Libby and others who pushed so hard for the invasion of Iraq after September 11, 2001.
Bush (the current president) came to office determined to show that he was not merely the son of his father, but that he had an independent and clear foreign policy of his own. He ignored private and public advice from General Brent Scowcroft, James Baker and other close advisors to his father. And he overrode the advice of his own Secretary of State, Colin Powell, when that advice seemed to reflect that values of his father.
When Bush was asked in a press conference in the early years of his administration whether he received advice from his father, he famously replied that he took advice from a different father, meaning God in heaven. In other words, the younger Bush did everything he could to show the world that he was his own man.
Given this background, the president's agreement to accept the appointment of the new Baker Commission is a humiliating admission of failure. It is almost certain that this commission will conclude that the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, and that it will propose face-saving ways of ending the U.S. role in the conflict.
In this respect, it will serve the nation in the same manner that Dean Acheson and Clark Clifford served the Lyndon B. Johnson Administration in 1968. In that year, Clifford became Secretary of Defense and Johnson announced that he would not run for another term as president - a humiliating recognition that public opinion had turned sharply against him and the war in Vietnam.
Look for the Baker group to come back in June with a clear message that the U.S. should begin to withdraw from Iraq. Several consequences are likely to follow. Look for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, to resign, with the possibility that Baker himself might step into that job. It is also possible that Vice President Cheney, the leading war hawk, could resign for reasons of health. Current Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice might well be appointed Vice President in his place, thus becoming the first woman and first African-American to hold the job. This would of course make her the leading Republican candidate for the presidential elections of 2008.
The timing is important. Republican control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives will be up for grabs in the Congressional elections of November 7. Bush must act quickly to turn public opinion around and present a viable strategy for "winning" in Iraq (meaning withdrawal). The stakes are huge.
In the event the Democrats were to win a majority in the House of Representatives in November, they would have the power to form an investigative committee to examine how the U.S. got into this war, complete with the power to subpoena documents and witnesses, and to expose the lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq that were propagated by the Neo-cons. It is also conceivable, when all the facts come to light, that an impeachment proceeding could be launched against President Bush himself. This is the nightmare that keeps Bush awake at night.
A final note: the Walt/Mearsheimer report on the power of the pro-Israel lobby (mentioned in my last report) is having the predicted effect on the dialogue in Washington. It has been widely attacked by typical pro-Israeli intellectuals such as Alan Dershowitz and Eliot Cohen, but also strongly defended by Tony Judt on the op-ed page of the New York Times, and by Richard Cohen, columnist for the Washington Post, both of whom are respected Jewish writers. Look for more on this in the days ahead.
- English Version Archive -
2008/
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 | 11 | 12
2007/ 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 | 11 |
12
2006/ 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 | 8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12
2005/ 1 | 2 |
3 |
4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
2004/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
9 | 10 |
11 | 12
2003/ 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
9 | 10 | 11 |
12
1999/ 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
1998/ 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 | 7 |
8 |
9 |
10&11 |
12
