George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Jun. 2006
Troubles keep piling up for President Bush. Some, like the war in Iraq, are of his own making, and some seem to come from outer space. In the past week, a bizarre raid by the FBI on the offices of Congressman William Jefferson (D-LA) threatened to rupture the hitherto strong cooperation between the White House and the Republican controlled Congress. This one apparently came from outer space.
It seems that the Attorney General of the United States - a Bush appointee - got over-zealous in pursuing a criminal investigation of Congressman Jefferson and staged the raid without authorization from the President. He sent the FBI into Jefferson's home and Capitol Hill offices and removed dozens of boxes of files for examination.
His motives are unclear, but it seems likely that he thought he was being a good Republican: by catching a Democrat in criminal activities, he could blunt the national anger over the Abramoff scandal - a Republican affair - and go into the November 7 elections with the notion that "they are all doing it- Republicans and Democrats alike - and thus divert the voters' anger toward politicians in general, and not just Republicans.
There would appear to be no room for doubt that Jefferson is guilty of taking bribes or worse. The FBI found $90,000 ofmarked $100 bills stashed in the freezer compartment of his refrigerator!
However, Attorney General Gonzalez failed to reckon with the sacred American belief in the "Separation of Powers" - the constitutional doctrine that places the Congress, the Executive Branch and the Courts on an equal footing. If the FBI (Executive Branch) can raid the offices of any Congressman at any time, then the Executive Branch would be violating this doctrine and asserting that it is more powerful than the Congress.
House Speaker Denny Hastert and Majority Leader John Boehner, both Republicans, immediately recognized this danger, and lashed out angrily at the Justice Department. While they and other Republicans were delighted that Jefferson, a Democrat, was apparently caught in criminal activity, they focused on the greater danger that the Executive Branch was usurping their power and asserting a new and dangerous interpretation of the Constitution. Most Republicans in the House of Representatives agreed.
A few days after the raid, Bush backed down. Caught like a deer in the headlights, he ordered Jefferson's files to be sealed for a period of 45 days, to buy time for the issue to be resolved peacefully.
At this point, it would seem that Bush has a tiger by the tail, and that there is no easy way to compromise. Either the files will be examined by Justice, or they will be returned. If examined, and a crime has been found to have been committed, Justice will be obligated to prosecute Jefferson. If Bush succumbs to Hastert's pressure and returns the files, he will look even weaker than at present. Someone will lose face. Strong rumors have been floated that the top two officials at Justice, Gonzales and McNulty, and the Director of the FBI, Robert Mueller, will resign if the files are returned to Congress unopened. In their view, this would be a direct repudiation by Bush of their authority to conduct criminal investigations.
It would appear, then, that by the week of July 10, someone will have to back down. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN), whose popularity and chances for becoming president are increasingly slim, said over the weekend that he was "okay" with the raid on Jefferson's office.
But Hastert and his Republican allies show no sign of backing down, and Bush's declining popularity across the nation, the bad news from Iraq and Afghanistan, the soaring price of gas at the pump, may encourage a direct challenge to the president.
What is not clear at this point is the question of whether Bush and Cheney were aware that their Attorney General would conduct this raid, and whether they approved of it in advance? It would seem at this reading that Bush was unaware of the plan, and that the keen political sense of Karl Rove would have warned Bush against the raid had it been known in advance. Here is one story where leaks are bound to occur as officials to cover their tracks. What can Bush do to affect a compromise? Stay tuned.
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