George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Oct. 2006
A new bombshell has exploded in the nation's capital that will further shatter the Bush Administration's defense of the failing war in Iraq. Bob Woodward, the Watergate hero, has written a third book that is very different in tone from his first two books about Bush. The first two books made Bush seem heroic and lent support to the "Neo-Cons" who led the nation into Iraq. The new one portrays an administration that is wracked by internal dissent and refuses to face up to reality in Iraq.
There is little in the new book, State of Denial, about Bush himself, but there is a great deal about Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. It is clear that well-informed sources, who are increasingly disenchanted with the war, have been leaking damaging information to Woodward.
In a memo quoted verbatim by one of Rumsfeld's longtime friends and advisors, Steve Herbits, Rumsfeld is described as "indecisive, contrary to popular image. Would not accept that some people in some areas were smarter than he. ...Trusts very few people. Very very cautious. Rubber glove syndrome - a tendency not to leave his fingerprints on decisions."
In a devastating report about Rice, Woodward describes for the first time an urgent meeting between the Central Intelligence Agency's Director, George Tenet, and Rice on July 10, 2001, two months before the AI Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon of September 11, 2001. According to Woodward, Tenet told Rice of recent intelligence reports that a terrorist attack was imminent.
But Tenet felt that Rice gave him a "brush-off' and ignored his report, saying that a plan for coherent action against bin Laden was already in the works. Tenet got the feeling that Rice, who at that time was National Security Advisor in the White House, could have gotten through to Bush, but that she had not understood the seriousness of the threat.
In yet another blow to the Bush Administration's credibility, General John P. Abizaid, the senior U.S. Commander for the Middle East, is described as largely agreeing with Democratic Congressman John P. Murtha, an outspoken critic of the war, who called the American approach to Iraq "a flawed policy wrapped in illusion."
Laura Bush, wife of the President, is described as favoring the firing
of Rumsfeld in late 2005, as was Colin Powell, former Secretary of State. But Bush and Vice President Cheney stubbornly refused to take their advice.
What we are seeing in Washington is a "tipping point" against the war, similar to the Tet offensive by the Vietcong in the war in Vietnam in early 1968. It was this clear setback that caused President Lyndon B. Johnson to declare that he would not be a candidate for re-election that November.
In this case, there is no presidential election until 2008, and Bush cannot run again in any case. But it seems likely that these revelations will help Democratic candidates for Congress on November 7. And even more devastating is the fact that Woodward's book will now encourage other administration insiders to come forward with new revelations.
Veteran Washington bureaucrats are very adept at sensing which way the wind is blowing, and jumping off sinking ships (like rats). So we can expect many more of them to try to prove that they opposed this disastrous war all along by leaking more damaging secrets.
I continue to believe that former Secretary of State James Baker will play a critical role in the months ahead. He has been chairman of a blue ribbon commission to assess the situation in Iraq, and recently spent time in Baghdad personally observing the insurgency. Being a loyal Republican, he has postponed making any public report until after the November 7 election.
But I suspect that when he does report to the President and Congress, probably late this year, he will favor an end to the current Iraq policy, and perhaps a phased withdrawal. I would not be surprised at that point if Bush then forced Rumsfeld to resign and appointed Baker as Secretary of Defense with the charge of getting us out of Iraq. Baker, who is a youthful 76, has no desire to take on this task but might do so at the urging of both President Bush, and the first President Bush. Stay tuned!
George R. Packard
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