George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Nov. 2006
The mid-term elections on November 7 are likely to give at least the House of Representatives a Democratic majority, which would be a nightmare for President George W. Bush.
Some pundits predict that both Houses will go Democratic, but I am skeptical. The power of incumbency (and the money that flows to it) is so great that it will be extremely hard to dislodge the Republicans in the Senate.
But even if only one House goes Democratic, it means that Committee Chairmen and majorities in that House will be Democratic, and several Committees are likely to launch investigations into how the war in Iraq was started, how false intelligence was used by Bush and Cheney to scare the country into the war, how the search for Osama Bin Laden was bungled, how the war in Iraq was poorly planned and executed, and how American troops find themselves in a quagmire from which there is no easy escape.
Committee investigators will have the power of subpoena, meaning they will be able to compel witnesses to testify and produce documents or face legal penalties including jail time if they refuse. So far, no one has been able to pin down Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz about their role in creating a special Pentagon unit that exaggerated the threat of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. But this will change under a Democratic majority, and it could prove highly embarrassing to Bush and Cheney.
The Democrats in Congress are far from united. At least one group fears that in opposing the war in Iraq, they will be branded as "losers" and defeatists by the Republican "spin machine" of Karl Rove. They remember how badly Senator George McGovern was defeated by Richard Nixon in 1972 when he called for withdrawal of American troops from Vietnam. They hate being accused of wanting to "cut and run."
Another group of Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, who would become Speaker of the House of Representative if the Democrats win a majority, feels that the war in Iraq is now so unpopular that a strong majority of the American people would like to get out under almost any circumstances. With deaths approaching 3,000 young American military men and women, and with daily headlines showing that Iraq is in the midst of a sectarian war with no end in sight, they believe that a withdrawal would be highly popular and could position them well for the presidential elections of 2008.
Two new names have surfaced as possible candidates for the presidency in 2008. Senator Barak Obama, Democrat of Illinois, son of an African father and Caucasian mother, brilliant graduate of Harvard Law School, now says he is considering entering the race.
Even more intriguing is the possible candidacy of Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire mayor of New York. If he decides to run, he would need to start a third party, and no third party has ever fielded a winning candidate in American history.
Still, many wise observers believe that the American public is so disillusioned with Republicans and Democrats that the time is ripe for a third party to emerge. Polls show that voters long for an end to the bitter partisanship and name-calling that characterizes current political debate, and for a pragmatic new approach to health care, fixing the social security system, making the tax system fairer for middle class families, and improving public schools.
The next big event in Washington will come around November 26, just after the Thanksgiving holidays, when the Baker-Hamilton Commission will release its findings about the war in Iraq. Insiders believe that James Baker will recommend a gradual "internationalization" of the war, and a comprehensive quest for peace in the Middle East starting with a new road map for Israel and the Palestinians to resolve their long dispute.
I still believe there is a good chance that Rumsfeld will be forced to resign as Defense Secretary soon after the report comes out, and that James Baker will be asked to replace him. Others think that George Schultz, former Secretary of State and also a member of the Commission, will be asked to return to Government in some capacity. But I doubt this will happen. I heard Schultz speak recently and he is a stronger supporter of the war in Iraq and also seems slightly senile. Stay tuned.
George R. Packard
- English Version Archive -
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