George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Jan. 2007
A Happy New Year is not what the Bush Administration can or should expect. In fact, 2007 will bring a multitude of tough problems to be managed by the President.
A new Congress in which both Houses are controlled by the Democrats, is itching to use the subpoena power to force the Bush Administration into revealing how the war in Iraq started, who is responsible for the false intelligence about weapons of mass destruction, how the Occupation of Iraq was so badly planned and executed, and which private American corporations benefited from the war.
It is true that the Democrats' majority in the Senate is thin - 51 - 49 -
and that Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota remains in critical condition after surgery to stop bleeding of the brain. If Johnson, a Democrat, should die or become unable to continue as Senator, his replacement would be named by the Republican Governor of South Dakota. This would mean that the Senate would be divided 50 - 50, with Vice President Cheney casting the deciding vote. Best guess now is that Johnson will remain in his seat even if he is unable to vote, thus giving the Democrats a 50 - 49 majority.
President Bush has said that he will announce a new plan for moving forward in Iraq some time in early January. Insiders say that his plan will include a "surge" of additional American forces in Baghdad of perhaps 20,000 to 25,000 soldiers and marines. Bush conferred with Vice President Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, General Peter Pace, and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley last week at his ranch in Crawford, Texas.
Those who know him well believe that he is stubbornly refusing to accept the fact that Iraq is rapidly descending into chaos and civil war. They believe that he will go to extreme lengths to avoid accepting the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group. To accept their recommendations would amount to an admission that he was wrong to invade Iraq. Chances are he will announce his new plan before January 9, when Senator Joseph Biden, (D-Delaware) plans to hold Senate hearings on the war.
Biden is the new Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a candidate for president in 2008. He will use the hearings to showcase his opposition to the war in Iraq and to bolster his credentials as a statesman. He will summon Condoleezza Rice to testify before his committee and the questioning will be tough and pointed. Rice has no choice but to appear for the grilling. This will be the first time that any Bush Administration official has been compelled to testify, under oath if necessary.
Biden will use the hearings to publicize his strong view that the White House should NOT send more troops to Iraq. He believes such a move would strain the already overstretched U.S. military to the breaking point. In this he is joined by the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, as well as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Other Senate hearings will follow. Senator Jay Rockefeller, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, is believed to be planning hearings on how the intelligence community could have been so wrong about weapons of mass destruction in pre-2003 Iraq. Was the intelligence doctored to suit Bush's policy? Did the pro-Israel forces (Neocons, such as Paul Wolfowitz, Douglas Feith and Richard Perle) have a hand in this?
Senator Carl Levin, the new Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, will lead hearings on how the military bungled the occupation of Iraq and created prisons where suspects were tortured.
Meanwhile the killing of civilians goes on. US deaths in the war are approaching 3,000 with more than 21,000 wounded. The American public is sick of this war, as the November 2006 elections clearly indicated, and even some of Bush's right wing supporters are jumping ship. Only Republican Senator John McCain, who hopes to succeed Bush as President in 2009, and Senator Joseph Lieberman, an independent, have shown strong support for a surge in US troops.
Most tellingly, former Secretary of State Colin Powell has for the first time public criticized the Bush Administration and is opposed to an increase in US forces. So Bush will be forced to answer the question: "What is the mission?" of the American forces in Iraq. So far he has provided no good answer, and 2007 is likely to be a painful year for the president and for the Pentagon and they struggle to find the answer to that question.
George R. Packard
- English Version Archive -
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