George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Aug. 2007
Interest in the stunning defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan last Sunday was muted - or non-existent - in Washington. Partly this is because developments in the war in Iraq are consuming most of the time and attention of foreign policy experts. Partly, too, Abe is viewed here as a colorless and bumbling fellow - a distinct contrast with his more vibrant predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. People here really don't care much whether he remains in office.
Abe's recent visit to Washington, in retrospect, was hardly triumphant. The long shadow of the comfort-women issue and the almost stealthy meetings at Camp David meant that Abe remains almost unknown to the general public, and disliked by many of Japan's friends.
There is no great enthusiasm for a resignation by Abe, mainly because no one knows who his successor will be. Aso Taro is widely viewed as a "lightweight" who would be even less competent that Abe.
A new outlook on Japan is brewing among the Democrats. For years (since 1953, in fact), Washington has pushed and prodded Japan to do more to bolster its military strength and to mesh more closely with US strategy. The US has urged Japan to recognize its right of collective self-defense, to revise its Constitution, change Article IX, join in missile defense, and send troops overseas.
The new thinking on the part of some Democratic leaders is that a strengthened military alliance with Japan can only seem threatening to China and will result in an even more intense arms race than exists today. They even wonder whether the move to bring India and Australia into some kind of "Arc of Freedom" makes sense. And they are concerned about closer ties between Japan and Taiwanese leaders who long for independence from the mainland.
None of this will matter if the Republicans can retain control of the White House and Senate. But a victory for Hilary Clinton, John Edwards or Barack Obama could lead to a major change in the way the US-Japan Security Treaty is viewed from Washington.
The other development yesterday was the passage by voice vote of Mike Honda's Resolution demanding an apology from Japan for the "indignity the comfort women suffered." The vote was reported in just a single paragraph in the New York Times today, and placed on page 7. In other words, it was non-binding and almost meaningless. The Government of Japan would be wise to ignore it for now, and use some future opportunity to reaffirm the Kono apology of 1993.
On the better news front, Kanzaburo XVIII and his Kabuki Troop scored an extraordinary triumph in New York with their presentations during. the week of July 16. In a rare tribute, critic Charles Isherwood of the New York Times raved about the performance of Hokaibo, praising it as a "dizzyingly convoluted comedy." New Yorkers at the performance were wildly enthusiastic and showed their appreciation from start to finish.
There can be no doubt that Americans like Japan in overwhelming numbers. The Gaimusho found that 91% of US opinion leaders and 74% of the American public believe that Japan is a dependable ally. But it will be some time before either political party produces a leader who will be recognized and admired here in the manner of a Nakasone or a Koizumi.
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