George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Oct. 2007
The surprise resignation on September 12 of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and assumption of the top job by Yasuo Fukuda eleven days later has left the foreign policy community here in confusion. Few in Washington seem to know much about Mr. Fukuda, and this has led to widespread speculation but very little sound intelligence.
Of the major newspapers, only the Washington Post saw fit to place Fukuda's election as LDP President on page one. Blaine Harden, the Post's Tokyo correspondent, branded the new prime minister "an admittedly uncharismatic party elder known for his dovish foreign policy and quiet political know-how."
The New York Times' Norimitsu Onishi on page three called Fukuda "a mild-mannered moderate known for his ability to build consensus behind the scenes." But he wrote that the selection process "harked back to the days of smoke-filled backrooms, reversing the party recent relative openness."
The Wall Street Journal's Yuka Hayashi appearing on page A8 called Fukuda "a party elder known for his moderate views on international affairs." She added, "Mr. Fukuda is known for his business-like manners, strong administrative skills and his fast-paced walk."
All of the articles emphasized that Prime Minister Fukuda will not visit Yasukuni Shrine and that he will try to strengthen ties with Asian nations while at the same time maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States.
Behind these rather general evaluations, however, the Bush Administration (particularly the Pentagon) is deeply worried about the fate of the anti-terrorism Bill before the Diet. If the Liberal Party under Mr. Ozawa Ichiro is able to block that bill, and if Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force can no longer conduct refueling missions for the American Navy in the Indian Ocean, this will have two major consequences.
First, the Navy, already stretch thin by it missions in the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, and Western Pacific, will need to take on the additional burden of refueling its ships. It has the capacity to do so, but only at great cost and logistical stress.
But even more important to President Bush is the symbolic value of Japan's participation in the "war against terror." British forces under new Prime Minister Gordon Brown are being withdrawn from Basra in Iraq. Japan's 600 ground troops have been withdrawn from the Samawa area. Bush has been telling the American people that our sacrifices are being shared by friendly nations in a "coalition of the willing." If Japan pulls out of the Indian Ocean mission, it will become increasingly hard to sell this line to the media here and to the nation at large. We can expect, therefore, that Fukuda will be under terrific pressure from Bush to win extension of the anti-Terror Bill beyond its November 1 deadline.
Other players are less concerned about Japan's involvement. A consensus that the war in Iraq is a lost cause has now been reached among informed observers and opinion leaders here. It is similar to the situation in 1966, when even Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara was telling close friends that the war in Vietnam could not be won (the war would continue until 1973!). If JapanŐs withdrawal could even in a small way hasten the end of the war that would be a positive development in their view.
The Democrats, especially their presidential front-runners, have looked hopelessly ineffectual on the subject of Iraq. None of them will publicly advocate an immediate withdrawal for fear of looking "soft" or of "letting down our brave fighting men" in the field.
As a result, wise observers are looking for any way out of Iraq, and many seek to involve the United Nations as a cover for withdraw of America troops. The number of American dead is approaching 4,000, and the seriously wounded exceed 27,000. This is not politically sustainable. When Fukuda and Bush get together in November, Fukuda should be prepared to direct attention to the six-party talks on North Korea, and how Japan can be helpful in arriving at a negotiated settlement of the nuclear arms question there. Bush is desperate for a foreign policy success of some sort, and Japan can play a major role in those talks. If so, then the question of the fleet in the India Ocean will become less important.
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