George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Jan. 2008
The first surprise of 2008 will be the amazing success of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Iowa on January 3. A new poll released yesterday by the prestigious Iowa daily newspaper, the Des Moines Register, now gives Barack a 7-point lead (32%) over Hillary Clinton (25%). This is larger than the standard margin of error. If the lead holds up on Thursday's Iowa caucuses, Barack Obama will be the first man in American history with an African father to be taken seriously as a contender for the White House.
New Hampshire's primary will follow on January 8, and it is by no means clear that Obama will repeat his success there. Hillary has a strong organization, plenty of money, and hundreds if not thousands of volunteers who will troop into the state to help get out the vote. I suspect Edwards will drop out of the race soon afterwards if he does not score well in that state. (New Englanders do not much like Southerners).
On the Republican side, look for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to do well in Iowa, but to stumble after that. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will do poorly in Iowa but better in New Hampshire. John McCain is a mystery: he could well rally in New Hampshire and move ahead later as everyone's second choice.
The most intriguing possibility, though, is the potential candidacy of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. As I have written before, and as Bloomberg himself has said, the chances of a short (5-feet 9-inches) divorced, Jewish billionaire running in a third party cannot be considered good in a "normal" year.
And yet, it would be wrong to rule him out this year. Bloomberg and his core of advisors have taken every step necessary to launch his campaign in earnest in March, should the chances of victory appear good enough. What would it take to induce him to run?
Bloomberg would have to be convinced that the Republican and Democratic front-runners as of March 5 were polarizing and that there would be plenty of room in the political center for a moderate, common sense candidate with a strong record as Mayor of our largest city to win. In particular, if the Republicans seem ready to nominate a pronounced conservative like Huckabee or Romney, Bloomberg might convince himself that plenty of Republicans would be looking for a new candidate, and that it would NOT be Hillary Clinton.
What Bloomberg has that no other candidate can come close to matching is $1 billion dollars ready to pour into his campaign (he is probably worth $10-12 billion in personal assets.) Second, he has assembled a superb team of political consultants and advisors who are prepared to leap into action if and when the signal is given. This team has studied campaign laws in all fifty states and knows exactly how many signatures are required to get Bloomberg on the ballot (states vary widely in their requirements). Third, he has put together a package of position papers on every conceivable domestic and foreign policy issue. Many of his positions are congenial to Republicans. Fourth, he is unafraid to talk about serious issues like gun control, same-sex marriages, abortion and other radioactive issues that most candidates duck. Finally, he has transformed himself from a highly successful businessman into a convincing politician.
Here is a true anecdote: a group of six presumably Republican New York bankers met two weeks ago for a pre-holiday lunch and went around the table declaring their preferences among announced presidential candidates. Five of six preferred Barack Obama. But when Bloomberg's name was included, all six declared that he was their favorite, and that they would drop everything and go to work for him immediately should he declare his candidacy. Stories like this abound, and they indicate that this is not a "normal" presidential year. George Bush has alienated many, perhaps most, traditional Republicans, leaving room for a non-traditional candidate like Bloomberg.
A final note: President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice seem to have "forgiven" North Korea for its failure to meet a yearend deadline to give a full accounting of its nuclear weapons program. They are desperate for one diplomatic victory that can be part of Bush's (sorry) legacy. But the forces of Vice President Cheney who wish to undermine the six-party talks are alive and well. They are hoping to combine with South Korea's new president to block further progress. STAY TUNED. HAPPY NEW YEAR.
- English Version Archive -
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