George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Feb. 2008
"Super Tuesday" did not settle the question of who will be the Democratic Party's nominee for President on November 4 of this year, but it may have provided a strong suggestion of who will eventually be the next president: Republican John McCain.
McCain, in my view, will be able to beat either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama provided that (1) the war in Iraq does not take an even more disastrous turn and (2) that the US economy does not slide into a deep depression, and (3) his health at age 71 does not show signs of weakness.
McCain has made himself in some ways a hostage to the war in Iraq. He supported the "surge" last summer and now aligns himself with President Bush, arguing that it is working. Still, assuming that there is no humiliating defeat for American troops there before November, he can probably tough this one out. Meanwhile Obama will be calling for an early withdrawal of US troops, and Hillary will try to straddle the issue, with an eye on public opinion polls.
In a direct faceoff between McCain and Hillary, McCain wins every time. Just imagine Hillary anointing herself as the "next Commender-in-Chief of US Forces" while debating a genuine American war hero, a fighter pilot, son and grandson of admirals. In such a confrontation, all her negatives would make her an easy target.
Barack, who has never served in the military, would also have a hard time convincing Americans that he would make a better Commander-in-chief. If the insists on an early withdrawal fro Iraq, he will need to have a more convincing plan than he has produced so far for the war's aftermath and for the entire future US posture in the middle East. Recall that it looks President Nixon and Henry Kissinger four long years to begin the phase out from Vietnam even after Nixon campaign on a "secret plan to end the war" in 1968.
There are, of course, many unforeseeable contingencies that could bring foreign policy issues to the fore. Pakistan continues to simmer and could explode in civll war, with unknowable destinations for its nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda is said to be even better prepared to set off a new terrorist offensive in the America. Still, my guess is that any disaster would favor McCain, the more experienced military man for a crisis.
McCain's astonishing comeback after being dismissed by the pollsters last summer, resulted from (1) the apparent success of the surge in Iraq; (2) his popularity among Hispanics for backing an Immigration Reform Law that would give illegal immigrants a path to citizenship; (3) winning over conservative Christians in South Carolina by relating the story of a North Vietnamese captor who drew a cross in the sand for him Christmas; and (4) concentrating on a victory in New Hampshire, where his "straight talk" and retail politics are appreciated most. He was also helped by the meltdown of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy in Florida.
It is true that many of the most fanatic right wing conservatives like Rush Limbaugh are still angry at him for his early opposition to Bush's tax cuts and other apostasies. But where will they go in November? They can sit home and not vote, but I suspect that their fear of a Clinton or Obama victory will impel them to hold their noses and vote for McCain.
John McCain has enlisted many traditional mainstream Republicans on his campaign team. Charlie Black, one of his leading advisors, argues that McCain is and always has been a conservative, in the Ronald Reagan tradition, according to this week's Newsweek cover story.
Other mainstream Republicans who have signed on with McCain are Colin L. Powell, Henry A. Kissinger, James Schlesinger, Brent Scowcroft, Robert M. Kimmitt and George Schltz. These nationally known figures will help dispel the fear among some who know McCain well that he has a hot temper and might be a risk with his finger on the trigger in a crisis. They will remind voters of the balanced, cautious foreign policy of the first President Bush.
With respect to Japan, two veteran policy advisors, Richard Armitage and Michael Green, are both in the McCain camp and can be counted on to give wise advise to the candidate.
Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee claim they will stay in the race, but I predict they will both drop out before the end of March.
If this analysis is right, McCain can spend much of the remainder of 2008 putting together strong players and policies to launch his administration in January 2009.
The rest of this election year will be sound an fury, signifying nothing.
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