George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Apr. 2008
Given the huge media coverage of the struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination, the housing and banking crisis, and the bad news from Iraq, it is not surprising that the election on March 22 of President Ma Ying-jeou has gotten very little high level attention in Washington. But the potential effects of this election are enormous, and they are only now beginning to sink in.
For many years there has been an assumption in conservative and industrial circles here that there will be some sort of military showdown between the Beijing Government and Taiwan. The budget for the U.S. Navy is defended (and even increased) on the argument that more ships are needed to defend Taiwan. A cottage industry of critics of China's human rights violations has grown up. Serious journals of international relations refer often to the coming clash for supremacy in the Pacific between the American navy and China's growing fleet. A number of think tanks, lobbyists and "China experts" testify regularly to the growing threat of Chinese military power.
As for the future of Taiwan, it has been regularly argued here that the United States must never abandon a threatened Taiwan because it is a fledgling democracy - the only one ever managed by the Chinese people. The assumption has been that, under democratic rule, and with free and open elections, the people of Taiwan would never approve any integration with the mainland that would place limits on democratic rule.
The Neocons, who have been disgraced to some extent by their terrible mismanagement of the war in Iraq, were and still are among the leading "hawks" and critics of the Beijing Government. It must be remembered that they bought a full-page advertisement in the New York Times and in other newspapers in 2000 calling on President Clinton to guarantee the independence of Taiwan should it be attacked by the mainland. Among the signers of that advertisement were Donald Rumsfeld, Richard Perle, and Paul Wolfowitz. Their reasoning not altogether clear, but it would seem that they oppose any relaxation of tension anywhere in the world on the grounds that this might entice Congress to cut back on the Pentagon's bloated budget.
There was a time after September 11, 2001 that they lowered their voices on China and concentrated on the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. But their hostility to China never disappeared entirely and today it is emerging again. The Chinese suppression of Tibetan protests this month has given them new ammunition.
Now comes Ma Ying-jeou, a sophisticated graduate of Harvard Law School who speaks perfect English and has many American friends in high places. His party campaigned on a promise to seek closer ties with Beijing, including visits by mainlanders to Taiwan, and increased trade and investment. He is elected president by a strong majority.
The anti-China forces here are stunned. Here is an event they could never have imagined: a popular majority in democratic Taiwan voluntarily seeking a rapprochement with the mainland.
It is too soon to know whether this will develop into the eventual return of Taiwan to nominal rule by Beijing, under some sort of Hong Kong - like arrangement. But already we can see another result in Washington: the argument for further spending on US naval vessels has been gravely weakened.
Looking further down the road, if Barack Obama, another graduate of Harvard Law School, were to be elected President this November, it is quite conceivable that he would wish to work with Taiwan and Beijing to hammer out some sort of new and closer ties.
The little secret that no one mentions here is that the US will never voluntarily go to war with mainland China to defend Taiwan now that the Chinese are capable of hitting American cities with nuclear weapons. Yes, a war could start by accident, but the more Taiwan and Beijing interact in trade, investment, and tourism, the less likely is an accidental war.
Japan and the United States. if they are smart, will do everything possible to encourage President Ma to strengthen Taiwan's friendly relations with Beijing.
George R. Packard
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