George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Jul. 2008
The former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Thomas ("Tip") O'Neill was dismissed the importance of foreign policy in an election year with the phrase, "All politics is local." Time and events have largely proved him right. But this year, the McCain - Obama contest seems headed for some genuine controversy and deep divisions on foreign policy issues.
The biggest question is whether Bush will follow through on his threats against Iran and its nuclear program before his term ends. There can be no doubt that the "Neo-Con faction" around Vice President Dick Cheney, though greatly reduced in power, would like to see a military strike against Iran this year, and the more Obama extends his lead in the polls (now 8 - 10%), the more anxious they are to act quickly before it is too late. Obama has made it clear that he will be willing to sit down and negotiate with Iranian leaders without pre-conditions.
If Bush were a more "normal" president who reflected on the advice of wise counselors, the feeling goes, his threats against Iran could be taken lightly. But he is not, and he has told us he takes his advice from his Father up in Heaven, namely God! What God is advising him to do right now is unknown, but many observers are worried that he will take the nation into a mess worse than Iraq.
Giving strength to these worries is a report over the weekend that the CIA and Pentagon are devoting more that $400 million to covert actions inside Iran aimed at destabilizing the current government in Tehran.
An article in the latest New York Review of July 17 by Thomas Powers, is extremely interesting. Powers has written widely on strategic and intelligence matters and the New York Review reflects liberal Jewish opinion in America. Powers is vehemently opposed to taking military action against Iran: "Every close observer of the American-Iranian standoff says that the administration's threats are empty, that the United Sates does not have the military resources or the political support at home, or the agreement of allies abroad, to carry out a full-scale air attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, much less to invade and occupy the country.
Even more interesting is his report that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other top Pentagon leaders share Powers' view, and if this so, then an attack would be impossible. Or would it? They fear that Bush is still working on some covert agenda that could lead to a new disaster.
This is a big problem for John McCain, who has moved steadily closer to Bush on almost every issue, and fully supports the war effort in Iraq even though he was critical of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Watch for Barrack Obama to travel to Iraq and Afghanistan and maybe even Pakistan in the coming weeks. His office revealed over the weekend that he will soon make a trip to Jordan, Israel, Germany, France and Britain. Surprisingly, he did not include Italy and Ireland, the two nations that have provided so many loyal immigrants to America - immigrants most of whom could be expected to support a Democratic nominee. His travel to Iraq will remain a tightly held secret for security reasons, and will be carefully orchestrated so that friendly U.S. troops will appear to support his candidacy. Barack is gradually softening his demands for an immediate pullout of US troops from Iraq. He now calls for an orderly, secure withdrawal.
North Korea's destruction of the cooling tower at Yongbyon on June 27 has not caused much stir here. Cheney continues to look for acts of bad faith on the part of the North Koreans, while Bush-Rice-Hill continue desperately to hope for a foreign policy ''victory.'' It seems likely that we will not know whether the North Koreans have lived up to their pledges until well after Bush has gone home to Texas.
So the campaign shapes up like this: Obama needs to convince people that he has the stature, experience and wisdom to be trusted with foreign policy and military decisions. He must never appear angry or cynical. McCain starts with a big lead in the area of national security, but needs to show that he is knowledgeable and comfortable with complex foreign policy issues. Above all, doubts about his age - 72 in January 2009 - are surfacing, and each time he forgets a name or gets his facts wrong, he lends weight to those doubts.
Not since John F. Kennedy was the Democratic candidate in 1960 has so little been known about one of the two major nominees. Barack Obama has a great deal of work to do in the foreign policy field.
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