Last Updated: 2008/12/04 20:17

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Inside America

U.S. Political Report

(Return to Japanese translation.)

George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation

George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.

Packard Report - Aug. 2008

Every reader of an American newspaper this morning was greeted with the headline that Exxon-Mobil, the giant oil company, made a profit of $11.7 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2008. This is the largest profit made by any corporation in the history of America. It comes at a time when nearly every American is feeling the pinch of gas prices of higher than $4.00 per gallon.

This gas price may not seem outlandish to most Japanese drivers, but it comes as a real shock to American consumers who have been spoiled by cheap gas and oil ever since the automobile was invented. When added to the recession that is now surely underway, with higher unemployment, many foreclosures on homes, leaving families homeless, it will surely be the centerpiece of Senator Barack Obama's economic message from now until November 4.

McCain has no answer for this, and very likely receives campaign contributions from Exxon-Mobil and other oil companies. He favors offshore drilling, which is no solution at all to higher gas prices; offshore oil cannot be available for ten years even if we start tomorrow, and environmentalists will put up a strong fight against the despoliation of our most beautiful coastlines.

Obama has called for conservation and for much greater investment in alternative sources of energy. He has also insisted that we should reduce our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

In an almost perfect storm this week, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Richard Perle, one of the key architects of the invasion of Iraq, is now investing in several ventures to drill for and market oil from Northern Iraq. This incredible news will make the anti-war critics go crazy. They have said from the beginning that the "Neo-cons," led by Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, and his sidekick, Douglas Feith, pushed Bush to invade Iraq for two reasons:

(1) to help Israel (all three are Jewish and closely tied to Israeli intelligence) and
(2) to secure oil from the region.


No one ever accused them of trying to make a personal profit from the war, however. Now comes Perle investing in that very oil. Obama should and will make a huge issue out of this fact.

The even stronger case for Obama lies in the realm of foreign and security policy. Ever since the Vietnam War, Republicans have been viewed as more reliable in security matters than the Democrats. Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton all allowed themselves to be portrayed as weak in the face of foreign threats. George W. Bush in 2000 somehow managed to appear stronger than Al Gore, even though he had shirked military service in Vietnam (Gore served there) and in 2004 somehow made John Kerry, a genuine war hero in Vietnam, appear weak and helpless.

All this is changing now, according to a seminal article by Samantha Power in the current issue of The New York Review (August 14, 2008). She served as a key foreign policy advisor to Obama until she was fired for calling Hillary Clinton a "monster" earlier this year. But her article perfectly foreshadows what I believe will be Obama's themes in the upcoming campaign:

  • The U.S. is less safe today because of Bush's failures.
  • The U.S. can and should negotiate even with dictators we dislike.
  • Launching un-winnable wars in Iraq and Iran have weakened the US ability to act elsewhere.
  • Withdrawal from Iraq can be accomplished without endangering American security or regional stability.
  • Veterans of the war must be treated better than Bush has managed so far.
  • Respect for international law, organizations and treaties add to American security; there is no other choice but to engage.


These ideas might have been dismissed earlier as wishy-washy liberals who lack a firm understanding of the use of power. But the fact is that the American economy is in serious doldrums, the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are going badly, and American voters may just be ready to try the liberal approach of Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy and even Eisenhower (whose granddaughter is working for Obama)! It is true that McCain is a hero of the Vietnam War, but his policy views have been overtaken by events and the passage of time. Can a majority of voters believe this? Stay tuned.

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