George R. Packard
President, International University of Japan;
Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, President, U.S.-Japan Foundation
George R. Packard was dean of SAIS from 1979 to 1993 and is now director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies as well as professor of East Asian studies at the school. He is also president of the International University of Japan. From 1965 to 1967, he was chief diplomatic correspondent for Newsweek. Prior to that, he served as special assistant to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Edwin O. Reischauer. In March of 1998, he was appointed president of the U.S.-Japan Foundation.
Packard Report - Sep. 2008
Even the most cynical political observers in Washington were stunned by Senator Johns McCain's choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice-presidential running mate in the November 4 elections. By conventional wisdom, it is an absurd decision: the woman, 44, has virtually no foreign policy experience, no Washington experience and just two years of serving as Governor of one of our most insignificant states. Her budget of $6.6 billion dollars is like nickels and dimes in Washington.
It is true that she has a pleasant smile, is an evangelical Christian, opposes abortion, hunts and fishes, is a card carrying member of the National Rifle Association, and is the ''hockey Mom" of five children. These qualities will win votes in some quarters.
But McCain's real motive in naming her was clearly to attract the women voters who are disappointed that Hillary Clinton lost out to Barack Obama in the Democratic Party. This, I believe, was a wrong-headed assumption. It assumes that women are like stupid chickens who will always flock in the same direction to support another woman. Hillary, on the campaign trail this fall, can effectively make a mockery of this assumption, and appeal to her voters to stick with the Democratic ticket.
The real mistake McCain made was to undercut his own argument that Barack Obama is too inexperienced to be Commander-in-Chief on Day One of his presidency. If McCain, who turned 72 yesterday, and has had four bouts with cancer, really believes that, how can he put forward as his potential successor a woman who is demonstrably less qualified than Obama?
Still, I believe the campaign will be close. There are still many Americans who lie to the pollsters about their readiness to vote for a black candidate. When they get behind the curtain in the polling booth, their ingrained racial prejudice will emerge.
Another problem will be the debates. Three presidential debates will take place between McCain and Obama on September 26, October 7 and 15. Obama, with his training as a lawyer, will clearly be the more logical and better informed of the two candidates. But he will have to take care not to show any disrespect for McCain's heroism as a prisoner for five and a half years during the Vietnam War. Other pundits can and will point out that being a downed fighter pilot and prisoner may not be the best qualifications for being President of the United States, but Obama cannot: the vast majority of Americans value McCain's courage and will be upset by any show of disrespect.
There will also be a vice-presidential debate on October 2. Here, the problem will be for Senator Joseph Biden not to appear condescending toward this attractive young mother of five children. The dynamics of this face-off are quite different: Biden will appear old at 65 and a Washington "insider" compared with the fresh face, bold ideas and outspoken Sarah Palin. If he shows disrespect or a patronizing attitude, he could risk sending women voters flocking to Palin's side.
The best course for Obama and Biden will be to stress that the United States is in trouble at home and abroad, and that their combination of change in the domestic economy and smart diplomacy abroad is what the nation needs. Any number of events between now and then could upset this prediction: the capture of Osama Bin Laden, a new act of terrorism on American soil, new evidence of nuclear weapon-building in Iran or North Korea, an attack by Israel against Iran and so forth.
I have been wrong before (I predicted that Hillary would beat Obama for the Democratic nomination) and I may well be wrong again, but the call here is a hair's breadth victory for Obama and McCain in November. I can predict with confidence only that this will be the closest, most hard-fought and interesting presidential election since Richard Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in November 1960.
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